Chalmette, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

261
FXUS64 KLIX 141735
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1235 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Upper low/trough extended from eastern Kentucky to Florida this
morning with another trough from Montana into California. Upper
ridging was along the lee side of the Rockies. At the surface, low
pressure was centered over the Oklahoma Panhandle with a warm
front eastward and a dry line southward. Locally, skies were clear
to partly cloudy at 3 AM CDT with temperatures between 70 and 75
with light south winds.

Mid level ridging will build into the western Gulf and the lower
Mississippi River Valley through Thursday. Onshore winds will
continue to pump warm and moist air into the area. No significant
chance for precipitation through Thursday. High temperatures today
should be at least as warm as on Tuesday, in the middle and upper
80s, but wouldn`t rule out 1 or 2 spots touching 90. Forecast
soundings would indicate that highs Thursday should be about 3
degrees warmer, which should put most areas in the lower 90s. This
would be the first 90 degree days of the season for much of the
area. Overnight lows tonight should be similar to this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Upper ridging becomes centered over the Gulf Friday and remains
there through most or all of next week. A northern stream
shortwave flattens it somewhat over the lower Mississippi River
Valley on Saturday, and again around the middle of next week. That
could push a frontal boundary far enough southward to potentially
produce isolated showers or storms over southwest Mississippi
Saturday afternoon, but that is pretty much the only chance of
precipitation across our area of responsibility over the next 7
days.

Temperature-wise...welcome to summer. Above normal temperatures
are expected through the period with highs in the lower 90s across
most of the area away from the immediate coast. Overnight lows
will be mainly in the 70s. Those readings are generally 5 to 8
degrees above normal, and there really wasn`t a good reason to
make significant changes to the NBM temperature forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A dry and stable airmass across the area will keep VFR condiitons
in place through at least 06z at all of the terminals. However, an
inversion will reform tonight as temperatures cool, and this will
allow for redevelopment of a low stratus deck at all of the
terminals between 06z and 14z. Ceilings will dip to between 1000
and 1500 feet resulting in prevailing MVFR and fuel alternate
restrictions. However, further strengthening of the inversion at
MCB where boundary layer winds are expected to be weakest should
allow for IFR ceilings of 300 to 800 feet to form. Some fog may
also develop and briefly reduce visibilities to 2 to 3 miles, but
the low ceilings have a higher probability of occurrence. After
14z, drier air will rapidly mix into the boundary layer and
prevailing VFR conditions are expected to be in place at all of
the terminals by 16z.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Patches of ceilings around FL015 should mix out or lift to FL030
or above by mid-morning at all terminals. Most of the afternoon
will see VFR conditions at all terminals. Winds are likely to be
gusty at most terminals with sustained winds around 15 knots and
gusts to 22 to 25 knots. Those winds should relax somewhat around
sunset but not go completely calm. MVFR to IFR ceilings will again
be possible between about 08z and 14z Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Will keep the Small Craft Advisory and Small Craft Exercise
Caution headlines in place over the western waters through 18z
today. May need another round of SCEC headlines overnight tonight
into Thursday. For most of the remainder of the forecast period,
winds should generally be in the 10 to 15 knot range, give or take
a couple knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  70  90  74  91 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  71  91  73  90 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  73  89  75  89 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  73  85  73  85 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  71  84  72  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ550-
     570.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW