Chalmette, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

607
FXUS64 KLIX 191139
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
639 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Saturday looks to be our last day of elevated PoPs for the next few
days as residual moisture is still available. Coverage will however
be more limited than the last few days, scattered at best, with
lower PWATs around 2 inches. PoPs peak in the early to mid afternoon
hours around 60%. This decrease in thunderstorm coverage does come
with an increase in temperatures unfortunately, but still around
climate normals for this time of year. Heat indices will also
increase, up to the 105F, but will remain below Heat Advisory
criteria.

Sunday looks to be a different story in terms of Heat Advisory
criteria. Heat indices look to be right around or even just above
criteria, in the 105-109F range. Surface high pressure begins to
build in from the west, bringing drier conditions through the early
week. Thunderstorm coverage will be even less on Sunday than
Saturday, with PWATS likely dropping below 2 inches. The NBM seems a
little bit hot with the PoPs, so lowered them a touch to ~20-25%.
Even just the air temperatures will be back up into the mid 90s for
the entire area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

As high pressure builds in from the east Sunday into early next
week, moisture levels will decrease, with precipitable water
values falling to around 1.7 to 1.9 inches, which is closer to the
typical range for late July. Rain chances currently forecast at 20
to 40 percent Monday through Tuesday may be somewhat overstated,
and it is possible that much of the area remains dry during that
time. With less cloud cover and rainfall, high temperatures are
expected to rise into the lower to middle 90s. Heat index values
may approach Heat Advisory levels Monday and Tuesday.

An easterly wave is expected to move through the northern Gulf on
Wednesday and Thursday. There is some uncertainty about whether
the associated rainfall will stay over the Gulf or spread into
inland areas. This will determine whether the region sees
scattered storms and highs around 90 degrees, or mostly dry
conditions with highs in the middle 90s. For now, the forecast
will follow the National Blend of Models guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

VFR outside TSRA today. There is the potential for some cigs to go
to MVFR but it should be temporary and during the early morning
hours. TSRA will provide the cigs and vis to IFR levels but should
be low enough chances after sunset to not show in taf set.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Winds are expected to remain light through the period as high
pressure gradually builds in. Additionally convection coverage is
expected to continue decreasing into the weekend, with isolated to
scattered at best for Saturday and isolated at best beyond that.
Moisture returns to the area around mid week, bringing coverage back
up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  72  93  73 /  50  10  20  10
BTR  91  75  93  75 /  60  10  30  10
ASD  91  74  93  74 /  40  10  30  10
MSY  92  78  94  78 /  50  10  30  10
GPT  90  76  92  76 /  40  10  30  10
PQL  91  75  93  75 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...HL